Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
December 31 75.6%
June 30 27.9%
March 31, 2026 1.8%
October 31 1.8%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Resolver: official source.
- Deadline: closing date in UTC.
- Disputed outcomes: handled by moderators within 48 hours.
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